Not much to say except…
Don’t drive cars & Don’t eat beef because…
In simulations of future warming we find that the permafrost carbon feedback increases global mean temperature by 10–40% relative to simulations without this feedback, with the magnitude of the increase dependent on the evolution of anthropogenic carbon emissions.
From Anthony et al. Methane emissions proportional to permafrost carbon thawed in Arctic lakes since the 1950s. And these feedbacks aren’t in the IPCC climate models. Conformation: A last message from the Department of Energy and Climate Change.
Will the new government department sideline climate warnings?
I expect it will.
1 thought on “Watch out for melting permafrost … It isn’t in the IPCC models”
Yes! And Vaks et al. 2013 show that by +1.5C, that permafrost is doomed to melt. We must bring temperatures, not just CO2, down, and that’s impossible without massive air capture of CO2. Lawrence et al 2008 show that when the Arctic Ocean ice is gone, the pulse of warmth extends 1500 km south of the Arctic coast. These are facts you just don’t hear from the rosy projections that policy people feel pressured to deliver to their bosses.