Dear Councillor,

Under an Optimistic Decarbonisation Scenario, ChatGPT has estimated the emissions from road transport for York in 2030. These alone make York’s target of net-zero emissions by 2030 impossible.

Transport Emissions 2030 (Life-Cycle)

Source of Emissions	Estimate (tCO₂e/year)	Share of Total
Vehicle use (driving)	87,000	41%
Vehicle manufacturing	75,000	35%
Roads, infrastructure & lighting	26,000	12%
Fuel & electricity production	18,000	8%
Tyres, parts, disposal	7,000	3%
Total (transport-related)	213,000	100%

• Per capita emissions: ~1.01 tonnes CO₂e /year

ChatGPT compares this with the carbon budget suggested for York by a Tyndall report in 2019:

York’s estimated science-based carbon budget (Tyndall Centre):

• ~250,000 tCO₂e/year in 2030 (across all sectors)
• Transport alone would take ~85% of that budget

Implication:

• Remaining carbon space for buildings, industry, waste, aviation, food, etc. would be extremely limited or zero.

However, the Tyndall Budget for York (1.1 tonnes CO2e per citizen per year) exceeds the 2030 carbon budget York has set. 

That is for no net-emissions. York isn’t planning substantial carbon sequestration. 

Transport emissions alone make the net-zero target unachievable.

Best wishes

Geoff Beacon